A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
