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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the biggest shock.

But the current field is profoundly different. The list of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions falling away and recent also-rans rising together. During an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a wild and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a normal campaign!

The area where his case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still